Bernie Moreno is running in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary.Photo:AP Photo/Joe Maiorana
AP Photo/Joe Maiorana
In today’s Congress, razor-thin margins are the norm. Democrats currentlycontrol the Senate in a 51-49 split, and as it stands now, they’re poised to lose some seats in November.
In 2024, with Democrats' majority in Senate as vulnerable as can be, party leaders in battleground states are focused on getting their mostelectablecandidates nominated in the primaries, not their most famous. In Michigan and Ohio specifically, the competitive GOP primary races will directly impact whether Republicans are able to flip the Senate in November.
In other states — like the firmly blue California and firmly red Utah, where candidates are running to replacelegendary lawmakers— the primaries could seal the deal on who heads to Washington next year. Those races are not expected to influence the overall makeup of Senate, and are more about deciding which candidate will best represent voters' interests in a polarized Congress for several years to come.
Plus, in New Jersey, the once-respected senior senator is under indictment, throwing Democrats' primary into disarray as his term concludes and his future looks uncertain.
Below, more on the five most competitive 2024 Senate primaries you should be tracking right now.
Michigan’s GOP Senate Primary
Mike Rogers, Peter Meijer, Justin Amash and Sandy Pensler are the top candidates in the Michigan GOP Senate primary.Sam Wolfe/Bloomberg via Getty; Michael Brochstein/Sipa via AP Images; Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images; Bill Pugliano/Getty
Sam Wolfe/Bloomberg via Getty; Michael Brochstein/Sipa via AP Images; Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images; Bill Pugliano/Getty
Michigan will play one of the most important roles in determining whether Democrats can retain control of the Senate for another legislative session. As soon as Michigan’s senior senator, Democrat Debbie Stabenow, announced her plans to retire after the current term, Republicans saw a viable path to flipping her long-held seat.
Democratic Rep.Elissa Slotkin— who proved an invaluable asset to her party when she flipped a key congressional seat blue in 2018 — quickly jumped in the race to replace Stabenow in hopes that she can continue her streak of winning battlegrounds. With months till the Aug. 6 primary election, she appears the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
On the Republican side, though, it remains unclear who might emerge as the party’s nominee. As of now, numerous candidates are sharing the spotlight in Michigan’s GOP Senate primary — though former Reps. Mike Rogers, Peter Meijer and Justin Amash, and businesswoman Sandy Nesler, are getting the most attention.
Rogers, 60, is a former FBI agent and ex-congressman who’s been favored in the race thus far, with the endorsements of numerous sitting senators, including Iowa’sJoni Ernst, Alabama’s Katie Britt, West Virginia’s Shelley Moore Capito and Montana’s Steve Daines. Though he’s been critical of Trump before, he backed the former president’s 2024 reelection campaign and is not-so-subtly hoping for a presidential endorsement to take him over the finish line.
Meijer, 36, dominated headlines days into his congressional tenure, when he wasone of 10 House Republicanswho voted to impeach Trump over theJan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, later calling it “career suicidebefore my career ever began.” He was ousted from the role at the end of his first term, but his moderate positions on issues like LGBTQ rights and gun control could appeal to statewide swing voters if he can first convince his party to send him to the general election.
Amash, who is Palestinian American, jumped into the GOP Senate race late in February, after Michigan Democrats made clear to PresidentJoe Bidenin the primary election that they want to see stronger action to end violence in Gaza. The 43-year-old preceded Meijer in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, and was the only House Republican to vote for Trump’s first impeachment, opting not to seek reelection in 2020 and subsequently leaving the Republican Party for a few years. As a late addition to the Senate race, it’s so far unclear how his candidacy will influence the primary.
New Jersey’s Democratic Senate Primary
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/Shutterstock; Shahar Azran/Getty Images
New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since 1972, and in all likelihood, that streak won’t end any time soon. But the Garden State finds itself in a peculiar situation this year, as its senior senator — who is up for reelection —faces federal criminal chargesrelated to bribery, corruption and acting as a foreign agent.
In the wake of Menendez’s September indictment, popular CongressmanAndy Kim, 41, quickly joined the Democratic primary race, saying that his state “deserves better” and that “we cannot jeopardize the Senate or compromise our integrity.” Among his campaign priorities are protecting the environment, defending reproductive rights and — fittingly — ending corruption in government.
Two months later,New Jersey’s sitting first lady, Tammy Murphy, also joined the race. Murphy, who is married to Gov. Phil Murphy, was a lifelong Republican until 2014 and had a brief career in finance during her 20s before quitting to support her husband’s career. The 58-year-old has made maternal health and gun safety a couple of the central focuses in her campaign.
While Murphy has a strong slate of endorsements and automatic establishment support as the wife of New Jersey’s top Democrat, Kim so far seems to have more on-the-ground enthusiasm. Either would likely become the state’s next U.S. senator if they win the nomination, but if Menendez decides to participate, the outcome is harder to predict.
Ohio’s GOP Senate Primary
Bernie Moreno, Frank LaRose and Matt Dolan are battling for the nomination in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary.AP Photo/Joe Maiorana; AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin; AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
AP Photo/Joe Maiorana; AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin; AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
Three Republican candidates are vying for the opportunity to go head to head with Brown in November: businessman Bernie Moreno, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan.
LaRose, on the other hand, is positioned as a familiar Ohio official who served in the state Senate before running for secretary of state. The 44-year-old oversaw Ohio’s 2020 presidential election, when Trump popularized false claims of nationwide voter fraud — and though LaRosegave little credence to the conspiracy theoriesthat followed, he’s also managed to stay on good terms with many election deniers. His most notable endorsement is Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee.
Dolan, 59, is serving his second term in the Ohio state Senate, helping shape the state’s budget as chair of the Senate Finance Committee. Before that, the son of Cleveland Guardians owner Larry Dolan spent five years in the Ohio House of Representatives. Though his political positions are fairly in line with Trump’s, Dolan has yet to embrace the MAGA label, instead casting himself as the problem-solver Ohio needs in D.C.
Ohio’s Republican Senate primary is scheduled for March 19, when Brown’s challenger will be determined and the Ohio GOP’s general election platform will become clearer.
California’s Senate Primary
Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee will face off in the open California Senate primary.Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images; David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images; Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post via Getty Images; Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images; David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images; Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post via Getty Images; Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
California has a blanket primary system, meaning candidates from all parties compete on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. That also means that, in theory, two Democrats could go head to head in November. The primary is scheduled for March 5 — Super Tuesday.
This year’s Senate race is a historic one, as a swath of popular candidates face offto fill the seat Dianne Feinstein occupiedfor more than 30 years. Four major candidates are vying for the seat: Democratic Reps.Adam Schiff,Katie PorterandBarbara Lee, and Republican baseball starSteve Garvey.
Schiff, who joined Congress in 2001 and most recently chaired the House Intelligence Committee, became a household name when he led the first impeachment trial for Trump. His Senate campaign has received some of the strongest endorsements from California leaders — including former SpeakerNancy Pelosiand former California Sen.Barbara Boxer— and recent polls suggest that the 63-year-old Democrat is the most likely to advance to the general election.
Porter, 50, has been a key figure among House Democrats, flipping a Republican seat blue in 2018 andfending off conservative challengersin her battleground district twice since. Despite earning a reputation as a fierce questioner in House hearings, the progressive has fewer endorsements than her Democratic competitors, though Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren— her former law professor at Harvard — has stood firmly behind her high-stakes bid.
Leeis another progressive candidate withnearly 26 years of experiencein the House. A former social worker, the 77-year-old has made the case that the Senate needs Black female representation, and that she’s “never backed down from doing what’s right.” Lee has a large swath of endorsements, including full support from the Congressional Black Caucus and numerous California newspapers, though polls have shown her falling behind.
Polls have hinted that Porter and Garvey will be battling it out for the number two spot in the primaries. If Garvey wins, Schiff is likely to become the next senator; if Porter or Lee is chosen to go against Schiff, the general election will be more competitive. In any case, the House will lose three key Democrats who sacrificed their seats to run for Senate.
Utah’s GOP Senate Primary
John Curtis, Brent Hatch, Brad Wilson and Trent Staggs are vying for the solid Republican Utah Senate seat after Mitt Romney’s retirement.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; AP Photo/Douglas C. Pizac; AP Photo/Rick Bowmer; Jack Gruber-USA TODAY
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; AP Photo/Douglas C. Pizac; AP Photo/Rick Bowmer; Jack Gruber-USA TODAY
Utah’s next U.S. senator will likely be decided during the Republican primary — scheduled for June 25 — in which four major candidates are running to replace high-profile Sen.Mitt Romney, who decided toretire from Congressafter just one term. The pack includes Rep. John Curtis, prominent attorney Brent Hatch, former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs.
Wilson, 55, is a real estate developer and former Utah state House member, who served as the state’s House speaker from 2019 to 2023. He has the powerful endorsement of Utah Gov.Spencer Cox, and a large cohort of state lawmakers.
And Staggs, 49, has served in city government since 2014, becoming mayor of Riverton in 2018. Despite earning the support of many Trump-aligned figures with a platform of “smaller government, safer families, and stronger economy,” he has less name recognition in the state and so far appears an underdog in the primary.
source: people.com
